Markets have begun to rally around the globe, perhaps signalling an end to the volatile beginning of the year. The mood has definitely lightened and there seems to be some broad support for a return of some positive numbers across the board.
But if we stop to ask ourselves why, we may be left scratching our heads at the answer. The current list of issues affecting the global economy is pretty long. China’s slowdown, the demand destruction for oil, problems across multiple oil and commodity producing nations, financial instability and an almost unbelievable amount of debt. In fact the the market turmoil has a lot of justification, far more than some of the previous sudden corrections over the last two years.
So what’s changed? Three things. First, central bankers have recommitted themselves to doing whatever it takes to put the economy back on a path to growth. Second, a deal has been announced with Russia and Saudi Arabia to cap oil production. Third, a growing concern about the financial assets of Deutsche Bank have been “put to rest” as it were by the German government.
As a list of reasons to be excited, I’m left somewhat underwhelmed. Take the deal between Russia and Saudi Arabia. The larger promise of this deal is that is spells out potential future moves to get oil prices back to a level of sustainability. For right now it simply outlines capping oil production at January levels, but will be largely meaningless if Iraq and Iran can’t be brought into the deal. Iraq and Iran for their part aren’t really interested. Iran, who isn’t exactly friendly with Saudi Arabia, has just got back into the global oil market and is looking to ramp up production. Iraq is also increasing it’s oil production, helping bring much needed funds to a country that is still looking to stabiles and legitimize itself. Neither are particularly interested in following Saudi Arabia’s lead.
It would at least mean more however if the January production numbers reflected some kind of wide ranging reduction in oil output, but among OPEC nations, as well as the United States and even Canada, oil production has continued to increase despite the price drop.
What about the central bankers promising to use all their muscle (and some that we didn’t know they had) to save the economies of the planet and return economic growth? Having spent the last eight years with emergency level key interest rates and very little to show for it the only solution is to go to a negative interest rate. Earlier in 2015, Stephen Poloz suggested that negative interest rates were a possibility for Canada. Much of Europe already has negative interest rates. Japan surprised markets a few weeks ago by making their key interest rate negative. Last week Janet Yellen, head of the Federal Reserve, also said that negative rates were not “off the table.” Disturbingly, having interest rates as close to zero as possible hasn’t encouraged wide ranging inflation across developed economies. Obviously the only solution is more of the same but SAID LOUDER AND MORE CLEARLY.
Here is Christian Bale yelling at you to spend some of your money!
But possibly the least exciting of the exciting news is surrounding Deutsche Bank. Last week Deutsche Bank seemed to be cruising towards the unenviable title of “the next Lehman Brothers”, before the German government “encouraged” the the market with some supportive words around the stability of the bank; a coded signal that Deutsche Bank is both “too big to fail” and that the German taxpayer would be on the hook.
Deutsche Bank’s problems have been extensively catalogued. Between massive fines, massive losses, massive layoffs, and a massive derivative position currently in excess of $50 Trillion (yes, with a “t”) the potential for the world’s fourth biggest bank to implode and set of some kind of financial (and given it’s position within Europe, political) cascade effect is very real, even if they do get a bailout.
On top of all that is the regular bad news that we haven’t addressed. China’s liability is still unknown, and as it hemorrhages foreign currency reserves threatens yet another line of attack against markets. Venezuela may, or may not, default on it’s debt. Here at home provinces like Ontario would have at least been hoped that a combined falling dollar and oil price would start bringing new manufacturing within our borders, instead they must brace for the disappointing news that of three new auto plants for North America, we will get none.
Some people may be excited about the most recent rally, but I’m afraid I’m not one of them.